[International] Ceuta Migration Crisis: Morocco's Geopolitical Calculations and the EU's Dilemma, Explained in 7 Q&As

The "Ceuta" exclave in North Africa, belonging to Spain, has experienced a large-scale cross-border incident, stirring sensitive nerves in the EU's immigration policy. Where exactly is Ceuta? Why do Moroccans risk crossing illegally? Does this incident involve Morocco's geopolitical calculations? CNA has compiled 7 key Q&As for a comprehensive understanding. According to foreign media reports, over 60,000 people have arrived in Ceuta in the past few days. However, the vast majority have been repatriated to Morocco, with only small scattered groups of migrants lingering in the area. Spanish authorities report 72 deaths so far, but the Moroccan Association for Human Rights (AMDH) states the actual death toll is closer to 130, with dozens still missing. TIME magazine reported that Ceuta's leader, Juan Jesus Vivas, stated in an interview that the scale of the influx was "as if 1 million people illegally entered Spain." Where is "Ceuta"? What is an "exclave"? Ceuta is a peninsula area on the northern coast of Africa, with an area of 19.9 square kilometers. It is one of Spain's two exclaves on the African continent, the other being Melilla, located about 220 kilometers southeast of Ceuta. These two Spanish autonomous cities are the only land border between the EU and Africa. Ceuta is separated from mainland Spain only by the Strait of Gibraltar. With a population of about 83,000, Ceuta is composed of Christians and Muslims, including residents from Morocco and Spain, as well as cross-border commuters. Residents have generally coexisted peacefully for a long time. An "exclave" refers to a territory of a country or region that is geographically completely surrounded by the territory of another country, making it disconnected from the main body of its own country. Located in North Africa, why does it belong to Spain? According to the Baku-based international media AnewZ, Ceuta has been an important port and military stronghold for centuries due to its strategic location. Before being captured by Portuguese forces in 1415, Ceuta was held by various Mediterranean and North African regimes. After the Spanish and Portuguese crowns merged in 1580, Ceuta was incorporated into the rule of the Iberian monarchy. When Portugal regained independence in 1640, Ceuta remained under Spanish rule. The "Lisbon Treaty" signed in 1668 formally established Portugal's recognition of Spanish sovereignty over Ceuta. In 1995, Spain granted Ceuta autonomous status, but its autonomous regulations define Ceuta as an indivisible part of Spain, while authorizing Ceuta to manage local affairs through its own parliament and government. Morocco has long disputed Spain's sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla, considering them remnants of European colonial rule. Spain refutes this claim, emphasizing that both Ceuta and Melilla are integral parts of Spanish territory. With strict border defenses, why are migrants still heading there? The Guardian reported that since at least the mid-1990s, thousands of people have crossed the Mediterranean from North African countries and Turkey each year seeking asylum in Europe. According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), Spain is one of the main gateways for migrants entering Europe, some hoping for better economic opportunities, others fleeing violent conflicts in their home countries. Ceuta and Melilla are considered important destinations from Morocco and other parts of Africa to Spain, hence both locations are equipped with stringent border defense facilities. Generally, many migrants arriving in Ceuta or Melilla are immediately repatriated, while others are placed in asylum seeker reception centers for screening, with the hope of applying for asylum in Spain. Facing risks of illegal crossing, what difficulties do Moroccan youth face? Moroccan citizens have expressed long-standing dissatisfaction with failing public services and poverty. Large-scale protests erupted at the end of last year. Many young people have been waiting for an opportunity to cross the border and seek better prospects. According to official statistics, although Morocco's national unemployment rate slightly decreased to 13% in 2025, the unemployment rate for the youth aged 15 to 24 remains as high as 37.2%. Misunderstanding a court ruling, how did the cross-border incident spiral out of control overnight? The Associated Press reported that authorities in Ceuta and Madrid attribute this incident to a recent ruling by the Spanish Supreme Court, which prohibits "immediate repatriation" for migrants arriving by sea, similar to those arriving by land or climbing border fences. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez stated that human trafficking rings misinterpreted this ruling, but he also admitted that the ruling might have fueled the chaos. Although the ruling did not legalize illegal entry, nor did it guarantee that those who swam ashore could stay in Spain, the news spread rapidly on Moroccan social media starting July 30, leading more people to attempt to swim to Ceuta. Moroccan media Hespress reported that Facebook groups even shared maps to Ceuta, illegal crossing techniques, and information on purchasing flippers to assist people in crossing. CNN reported that Gemma Pinyol-Jimenez, director of immigration policy and diversity at the think tank Instrategies, said, "This ruling simply means that people cannot be pushed back directly at sea because there is no formal border at sea... The intention is to facilitate police enforcement, but it does not mean these people can stay in Ceuta." Daniel Thym, a law professor at the University of Konstanz in Germany, stated, "It is important to understand that migration movements are almost never caused by a single factor. This ruling might be a trigger, but many other factors are at play behind it." Underlying power struggles, what geopolitical conflicts are involved? However, this incident may be related to the struggle between Morocco and Algeria. Sanchez's recent visit to Algeria might be one of the triggers behind this incident. The Guardian reported that the last large-scale cross-border incident occurred in May 2021. At that time, Spain decided to allow the leader of the Western Saharan independence movement, the Polisario Front, to receive COVID-19 treatment in Spain, which angered Morocco. Morocco subsequently relaxed its border controls, leading approximately 10,000 migrants to cross into Ceuta. Matteo Villa, a migration research scholar at the Italian think tank ISPI (Institute for International Political Studies), stated that political factors are highly likely to be involved in this incident, and Morocco might be using the relaxation of border controls to assert its "control." He said that Moroccan authorities know that such actions will provoke strong reactions in Europe, and Morocco "enjoys seeing internal conflicts among European countries." Chain reaction, how does the crisis shake European politics? This wave of migrant influx has quickly become a political focal point across Europe. TIME magazine reported that in Spanish politics, right-wing figures are using this incident to target Sanchez's left-wing, pro-immigration government. While other European countries are gradually tightening their immigration policies, the Sanchez government announced an immigration legalization plan earlier this year, which was expected to provide a legal path for about 500,000 immigrants already living in Spain without legal status. However, over 1 million people have now applied. As for EU countries, CNN reported that Italy announced temporary border controls for arrivals from Spain, while France stated it would strengthen border checks. Spanish opposition parties accuse the Sanchez government of poor border control, and European leaders are once again calling for stricter immigration policies. Al Jazeera reported that the EU announced it would hold a video conference on the 4th to discuss swift and coordinated response measures to prevent "further uncontrolled cross-border movements."