[International] Thailand Cautiously Re-engages with Myanmar; Analysts Worry Military Junta Will Gain Legitimacy

Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing is expected to visit Thailand on the 6th, marking his first trip to the country since becoming president. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul stated on the 4th that Thailand will engage with Myanmar cautiously and incrementally. However, analysts warn that Myanmar's re-engagement with ASEAN could legitimize the military-led government. The Bangkok Post reported on the 4th that Anutin said Thailand is promoting "measured re-engagement" with Myanmar, advocating for maintaining open communication channels while also demanding tangible progress. Anutin said, "Thailand has always advocated for a step-by-step approach to re-engagement, keeping dialogue open and responding based on actual circumstances, while encouraging tangible progress." He added that ASEAN's "Five-Point Consensus" remains the framework for resolving the Myanmar crisis. The Five-Point Consensus includes: "Immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and exercise of utmost restraint by all parties," "Constructive dialogue among all parties to seek a peaceful solution for the benefit of the people," "ASEAN will provide humanitarian assistance to the people of Myanmar," "A special envoy of the ASEAN Chair will be appointed to mediate the dialogue process," and "The special envoy will visit Myanmar to meet with all parties concerned." Anutin pointed out that recent signs indicate "progress in the right direction," including the former civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi being allowed to meet with representatives from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and appearing to be in good health. Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest. She met with ICRC representatives on the 3rd, her first public meeting with foreign officials since her ouster. The report cited independent analyst David Mathieson, who told Agence France-Presse that Myanmar's push to rejoin ASEAN is purely a "status issue" for Min Aung Hlaing. Analysts warn that re-engaging with Myanmar could legitimize the country's military-dominated government. Since the military coup in February 2021, ASEAN has banned senior Myanmar officials from attending high-level political summits. Philippine Foreign Minister Maria Theresa Lazaro stated last month that Myanmar is "still a long way" from full participation in ASEAN meetings. Anutin emphasized that ASEAN's principle of non-interference remains crucial but "must be applied flexibly and pragmatically to maintain ASEAN's unity." In February 2021, the military led by Min Aung Hlaing overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government, plunging Myanmar into turmoil. The subsequent protests gradually evolved into a protracted civil war, estimated to have caused around 100,000 deaths and displaced millions. After an election widely condemned as fraudulent, Min Aung Hlaing was appointed president. Since then, he has embarked on diplomatic visits to neighboring countries in an attempt to restore Myanmar's international standing. Thailand, which borders Myanmar, has been actively promoting the normalization of relations with Myanmar through bilateral channels and ASEAN, citing cross-border security issues such as refugees, cyber fraud syndicates, and drug smuggling. (Editor: Liu Xiang-hua)