[International] Satellite Imagery Warns of Escalating Sudan Conflict, Large-Scale Military Deployment Seen at Border
RtiTalk 小編20d ago
The civil war in Sudan has been raging for over 3 years. Recent satellite imagery shows a significant increase in military vehicles and supplies at a military base in Ethiopia near the Sudanese border, possibly related to the activities of the Sudanese paramilitary group "Rapid Support Forces" (RSF). Concerns are growing that the Sudanese civil war may further escalate.
According to a report by the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab released on the 28th, as reported by Egyptian media "Al Ahram," satellite imagery indicated a notable increase in military activity at the Asosa military base in Ethiopia between August 23rd and 28th.
The report states that approximately 100 light military vehicles were added to the base in just five days, about six times the number on the 23rd. Additionally, 15 suspected armored personnel carriers, 14 transport trailers, and at least 8 trucks were observed, some of which were armed. Yale estimates that these vehicles could transport between 750 to 1,000 personnel.
Yale researchers warned that the rapid expansion of the Asosa military base could increase the risk of attacks on Ed Damazin, the capital of Sudan's Blue Nile state. This could not only broaden the scale of the Sudanese civil war but also lead to civilian casualties and further displacement within Sudan, potentially triggering a refugee influx into Ethiopia.
However, the Yale research team also stated that it is currently impossible to confirm battlefield specifics solely based on satellite imagery.
The report emphasizes that this situation arises amid recent escalations in fighting in the Blue Nile region. The Sudanese civil war has expanded from the western cities of Darfur and Kordofan to the Blue Nile state, which borders Ethiopia.
The war in Sudan erupted in April 2023 due to a power struggle between the Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as Hemedti. Daglo is currently the leader of the Rapid Support Forces.
The RSF launched a counteroffensive on the 10th in the Kurmuk area near the Ethiopian border and has been engaged in ongoing clashes with the SAF in border regions, including the Blue Nile state. The RSF has also claimed to capture SAF strongholds in the Blue Nile province.
The report quotes unnamed analysts who point out that Kordofan remains the most crucial battlefield for both armies. After regaining control of the capital Khartoum and parts of central Sudan last year, the SAF has gradually shifted its front lines westward. The Darfur region in the west is still controlled by the RSF, which is attempting to cut off the SAF's east-west transportation and supply lines from Kordofan.
In July, the British government released a security assessment indicating a risk of de facto regional fragmentation in Sudan. The RSF has established a parallel government in Darfur, while the SAF attempts to retake western areas.
Although al-Burhan stated on the 15th his willingness to discuss a peace agreement with the enemy forces, he rejected any proposals that would grant political power to the enemy and emphasized that the SAF will continue fighting until all enemy-controlled areas are recaptured.
On the 24th, the United States called for an expanded arms embargo on Sudan at the United Nations Security Council, citing continuous financial, weapon, and political support from external actors as a significant factor prolonging the conflict. A UN report had also revealed the involvement of Colombian mercenaries in the fighting, which was denied by the implicated countries.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) stated on the 20th that the Sudanese civil war has resulted in at least 59,000 deaths and approximately 13 million displacements over three and a half years, with some areas facing famine. Furthermore, Kordofan has seen over 200,000 new displacements since the intensification of fighting late last year.
Additionally, in the first four months of this year, about 80% of war casualties were due to drone attacks. (Editor: Chung Chin-lung)
Source Link: https://www.rti.org.tw/news?uid=3&pid=229185
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